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In September, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index Was 49.8 Percent

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Core prompt:     In September, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 49.8 percent, up by 0.6 percentage points month-on-month, which was clo

 

 

In September, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 49.8 percent, up by 0.6 percentage points month-on-month, which was close to the threshold, and was the first rebound after falling for four consecutive months since May 2012.

In view of the sizes of enterprises, the PMI of large-sized enterprises was 50.2 percent, increased 1.1 percentage points month-on-month, positioned above the threshold, that of medium-sized enterprises was 49.8 percent, decreased 0.1 percentage points month-on-month, that of small-sized enterprises was 46.7 percent, decreased 1.0 percentage points month-on-month.

China's PMI Decreased in September

In September, among the five sub-indices composing PMI, three sub-indices increased, while that of the other two sub-indices decreased. 

Production index was above the threshold, which was 51.3 percent, increased 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, indicating that manufacturing production was still expanding, and the growth slightly faster. In view of different industries, the production outputs of tobacco manufacturing, textile and apparel industry, agro-food processing industry, computer communications, electronic equipment and instrumentation manufacturing kept steady growth; the production indices of ferrous metal mining and processing, textiles industry, paper and printing industry, cultural, educational, sporting goods manufacturing, and fabricated metallic products manufacturing, positioned below the threshold, and the production outputs showed a falling down trend.

In September, the new orders index was 49.8 percent, up by 1.1 percentage points month-on-month, positioned close to the threshold, and was the main driving force of the PMI rebounded this month, which indicated that the decline of the manufacturing industry to the amount of product orders from customers significantly narrowed. In view of different industries, the new orders indices of tobacco manufacturing, foods, liquor, beverages and fine tea manufacturing, textile and apparel industry, computer communications, electronic equipment and instrumentation manufacturing, the market demand increased significantly. The new orders indices of fabricated metallic products manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, textile industry, ferrous metal mining and processing, were continuous located below the threshold, market demand down. The survey results showed that foreign new orders index which reflects the situation of foreign trade of manufacturing was 48.8 percent, increased 2.2 percentage points, month-on-month; the import index was 47.7 percent, increased 0.7 percentage points month-on-month, which showed that the decreasing amplitude of amount of export orders and imports of raw materials reduced. 

Main raw materials inventory index was 47.0 percent, up by 1.9 percentage points month-on-month, below the threshold, which indicated that the raw materials inventory continued to reduce, while that of decreasing amplitude narrowed significantly. In view of different industries, the main raw materials inventory indices of agro-food processing industry, processing of timber, furniture manufacturing, foods, liquor, beverages and fine tea manufacturing, gained increase, that of textile industry, fabricated metallic products manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, smelting and processing of ferrous metal ores, were below the threshold, the main raw materials inventory decreased continuously.

Employed person index was 48.9 percent, decreased 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, stayed below the threshold for four consecutive months, which indicated the demand growth of manufacturing employment continued slowed down. In view of different industries, employed person of agro-food processing industry, tobacco industry, computer communications, electronic equipment and instrumentation manufacturing, positioned above the threshold, employment increased, that of fabricated metallic products manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing positioned below the threshold, employment decreased.

Supplier delivery time index was 49.5 percent, 0.5 percentage points lower month-on-month, stayed below the threshold, which indicated that the manufacturing supplier delivery time has slowed down.

Main raw material purchase price index was 51.0 percent, significant upturn in 4.9 percentage points month-on-month, positioned above the threshold after falling for four consecutive months, which indicated that the overall manufacturing main raw material purchase price increased from decrease. The corporate procurement costs of raw materials have increased. In view of different industries, the month-on-month prices of processing of petroleum and coking, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, chemical fiber manufacturing, rubber and plastic manufacturing, and pharmaceutical manufacturing, increased significantly, that of smelting and processing of ferrous metal ores, fabricated metallic products manufacturing, positioned below 40 percent, main raw material purchase price declined significantly.

China's PMI Decreased in September_1

Annotations:

1. Explanatory Notes

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises purchasing managers. It covers every links of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, logistics, and so on. It is one of the leading indices which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The threshold of PMI is usually using 50 percent as the cut-off point for economic performance. If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the manufacturing economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the manufacturing economy is in recession.

2.Statistical Coverage

The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing sector in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T4754-2011), and totally 820 sampling enterprises are selected and surveyed countrywide.

3. Survey Methods

PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing sector as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing sector. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.

The survey was conducted monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.

4. Calculation Methods

The questionnaire of manufacturing purchasing managers survey covers 11 questions related to production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase prices, raw materials, inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, and etc.. Diffusion index was calculated for each question, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers.

PMI is a composite index, which was calculated according to five diffusion indices (group indices) and their weights. 5 group indices and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new orders index weighted 30 percent; production index weighted 25 percent; employees index weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weighted 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weighted 10 percent. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.

5. Seasonal adjustment

The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released PMI composite index and sub-indices are seasonally adjusted data.

 
 
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